对流层中高层非绝热加热对我国近海热带气旋突然增强影响的机理研究

The mechanism of rapid intensification of tropical cyclone （TC） is the most important questions in TC research and forecast. The rapid intensification of offshore tropical cyclone is one of the disastrous weather processes which has great influence on China, and it also very difficult to forecast. The diabatic heating near TC center is the main energy source of the development of TC, especially the latent heat, located in the upper and middle troposphere, plays an important role on TC intensity change. Therefore, it is necessary to further analyze the mechanism of the distribution and its evolution of diabatic heating in the mid-upper troposphere to rapid intensification of offshore TC, which has important scientific and forecasting value. The project aims at comprehensive analysis of high resolution satellite remote sensing data, especially related to latent heat inversion products and high resolution reanalysis data, using the improved theory to quantitatively diagnose the relationship between the rapid intensification and diabatic heating, combined with general statistical investigation, composite analysis, typical case analysis and cloud resolving control and sensitivity experiment, the influence mechanism are summarized. Our results are supposed to get better understanding on TC rapid intensification and may provide some clues for operational TC forecast, enrichment and development the conceptual model. The research is supposed to illustrate the evolution characteristics of diabatic heating in the horizontal and vertical direction, further its relationship with rapid intensification of offshore TC in China, reveal the exact influence mechanism, and build the physical concept model of our research subject.

热带气旋（TC）增强机理是当今TC研究和预报最重要的科学问题之一，尤其近海突然增强TC对我国影响大而又难以预报。非绝热加热是TC发展的主要能源，TC中心附近对流层中高层非绝热加热对TC强度变化具有重要作用。因此，研究对流层中高层非绝热加热对我国近海TC突然增强影响的机理，具有重要科学意义和预报价值。本项目采取普查统计分析、合成分析和典型个例分析相结合，观测事实分析、多源资料融合诊断分析、理论分析和数值模式模拟相结合，从热力学角度进行物理机制探讨的研究方法，研究TC中心附近对流层中高层非绝热加热影响我国近海TC强度变化的过程及其机理。阐明对流层中高层非绝热加热在水平和垂直方向的演变特征及其与我国近海TC突然增强之间的关系，揭示对流层中高层非绝热加热对我国近海TC突然增强的影响机理，建立对流层中高层非绝热加热影响我国近海TC突然增强的物理概念模型。

热带气旋（TC）突然增强是对我国影响大而又难以预报的一种灾害性天气过程，TC突然增强的机理研究是当今热带气旋研究和预报最为重要最为迫切的科学问题之一。TC发展的主要能源是非绝热加热，其中又以积云对流引起的水汽凝结潜热为主。非绝热加热的非均匀分布及其演变对TC强度变化具有重要作用。因此，深入分析对流层中高层非绝热加热及其演变对认识TC突然增强的机理必不可少。.本项目聚焦我国近海TC突然增强的热力学机理，利用改进的理论诊断方程定量分析了TC 中心附近对流层中高层非绝热加热在水平和垂直方向的演变与TC突然增强的关系。结合云分辨率模式的敏感性试验验证，从云微物理潜热加热的角度揭示出TC 中心附近对流层中高层非绝热加热对我国近海TC 突然增强的影响机理。建立了TC 中心附近对流层中高层非绝热加热触发我国近海TC 突然增强的物理概念模型。.在项目负责人的组织带领下，项目参与人员分工负责，密切合作，共同完成了本项目全部研究任务。本项目执行期间共发表论文16 篇。其中，8 篇SCI论文，8篇中文核心期刊论文。会议报告2 次，其中1 次国际会议，1 次国内会议并获大会“优秀口头报告”。项目培养3名硕士研究生，毕业后分别走向本专业的科研、业务和技术岗位工作，培养1名高级工程师。.基于本项目研究并关注的对流层中高层非绝热加热作用，揭示出了对流层中高层非绝热加热及其演变对认识TC突然增强的机理，凝练出了可供实际业务预报参考的物理判据，并成功应用于国家级台风强度预报业务中。如项目组开发了200hPa温度异常、风场和位势高度叠加图，过台风中心经向、纬向垂直剖面图，台风暖心、台风高层扰动位温等8个常用诊断量，并成功集成于中国气象科学研究院研发的台风区域同化及预报试验系统（T-RAPS）中，实时预报TC诊断量发布于中国气象局业务内网。