海平面上升情景下未来30年风暴潮灾害的危险性预估研究

Risks of extreme disaster events such as storm surges have become an urgent problem to be solved for coastal risk management under global warming. This project focuses on the key scientific issue of “impacts of sea-level rise on the hazard of storm surge extremes” and Shandong Peninsula is taken as a case study. Recurrence of extreme water levels in the coming 30 years will be projected by combining storm surges, astronomical tides and sea-level rise using statistical analysis and mathematical models. First, using the percentile threshold method, extreme water level records will be identified which were caused by storm surges based on the past 30-year observed water level data. Variation characteristics of past extreme water level will be illustrated as well. Second, using the two-dimensional compounding extreme value distribution model, the compounding extreme water level series will be constructed by combining storm surges and astronomical tides. And then, the probability distributions of future extreme water levels will be simulated in the coming 30 years integrating sea-level rise. Meanwhile, the height and return period of the future extreme water level under the sea-level rise scenarios will also be projected. This study is a basis for quantitatively estimating the future socioeconomic risks and can provide an important theoretical foundation for disaster prevention, mitigation and climate change adaptation in the coastal zone.

全球气候变化背景下，风暴潮等极端灾害事件的风险是海岸带风险管理亟需解决的重要问题。本项目围绕“海平面上升对风暴潮灾害极端事件危险性的影响”这一关键科学问题，以山东半岛为研究区域，综合风暴潮增水、天文大潮、海平面上升三要素，通过统计分析和数学建模等技术手段，预估未来30年极值水位的重现特征。首先，基于过去30年的水位观测数据，利用百分位阈值方法识别风暴潮历史极值水位，阐明极值水位的变化规律；第二，通过二维复合极值分布模型，构建风暴增水与天文大潮联合形成的极值水位；进而，叠加海平面上升因素，模拟未来30年极值水位的概率分布状况，预估海平面上升情景下未来极值水位的高度及其重现期。本研究是定量预估海岸带未来社会经济风险的基础，并为其防灾减灾和气候变化适应提供理论依据。

全球气候变化背景下，风暴潮等极端灾害事件的风险是海岸带风险管理亟需解决的重要问题。本项目围绕“海平面上升对风暴潮灾害极端事件危险性的影响”这一关键科学问题，以山东半岛为研究区域，综合风暴潮增水、天文大潮、海平面上升三要素，通过统计分析和数学建模等技术手段，预估未来极值水位的重现特征。通过辨识极值水位风险区域的变化，比较现阶段及未来淹没风险的损失及极值水位危险性的变化，评估气候变化引起的海平面上升所增加的极值水位淹没风险。基于CMIP6区域模式等多源数据，在共享社会经济路径-典型浓度路径情景(SSPs-RCPs)下，构建并拟合了本世纪近、中、长期的复合极端水位概率密度函数，并结合模拟的未来LUCC数据，定量评估了海平面上升和人为活动双重影响下黄河三角洲的复合极端淹没风险。本研究是定量预估海岸带未来社会经济风险的基础，并为其防灾减灾和气候变化适应提供理论依据。