基于前景理论的银行中小企业信贷非理性决策行为研究

Based on the Prospect Theory and applying Experimental Economics and Computational Experimental Finance methods, from the perspective of decision-making and accessing to "black box " of credit decision for the first time, we study irrational behavior of SME credit decision-making in order to provide guidance and references for macroscopical and microcosmic decision-makers in banking. Firstly, through a series of experiments and the multi-step continuous experiment, the project tests the existence of " irrational behavior " in SME credit decision-making predicted in Prospect Theory. Based on the results of questionnaire and interviews, the project discusses the causes of irrational decision-making from four aspects. Finally, we propose control strategy on irrational decision-making and prove the effectiveness through the experimental simulation of Agent-based simulation model. The possible innovations of the research may be : accessing to "black box"of credit decision and applying Prospect Theory to give a systemic insight of " irrational behavior " in SME credit decision-making for the first time ; exploring the "process-tracing" method ;developing a new research paradigm for credit decision-making by using Agent-based simulation model ,which can make us to study the macroscopical driving force characterestics of credit market from microcosmic perspective.

本项目基于前景理论，运用实验经济学和计算实验金融方法，首次从决策者行为的视角，进入信贷决策的"黑箱"，研究我国中小企业信贷决策中的非理性行为，以期为银行微观决策者提供指导、为宏观监管政策制定者提供借鉴。项目首先通过系列实验、多步连续实验，对我国银行中小企业信贷决策中是否存在如"前景理论"所述的"非理性行为"进行检验；然后基于调查问卷和访谈结果，从四个层面探讨非理性决策的成因；最后，提出非理性决策的抑制策略，通过基于Agent的仿真模型进行实验模拟，在结果对比分析后对策略的有效性进行验证。本项目可能的创新在于：首次进入信贷决策行为的"黑箱"，引入"前景理论"系统研究我国中小贷决策行为；对"过程追踪"实验方法进行探索；首次运用基于Agent的行为模型研究信贷决策非理性行为，就微观层次研究信贷市场宏观动力特性做尝试性探索。

中小企业的贷款难一直是理论和实务界的热议问题，分析制约中小贷发展的因素并制定相应对策有重要意义。本项目基于前景理论，运用实验经济学和计算实验金融方法，首次从决策者行为的视角，进入信贷决策的"黑箱"，研究我国中小企业信贷决策中的非理性行为。项目首先通过系列实验、多步连续实验，对我国银行中小企业贷款决策者的三种非理性行为：损失厌恶、框架效应、心理账户进行了验证，并进一步研究了性别、年龄、认知需求、决策方式等要素对非理性行为出现概率的影响。实验结果表明：（1）损失厌恶、框架效应在我国银行中小企业贷款决策者的决策行为中存在，但心理账户效应不显著；（2）就“损失厌恶”效应而言，男性、年轻人更易出现面对损失时的风险寻求，先个体后集体的决策方式能较好地避免这一现象；（3）就“框架效应”而言，女性和认知需求低的人显示框架效应的概率更高，而年龄对框架效应的影响不显著。然后基于调查问卷和访谈结果，从四个层面探讨非理性决策的成因；最后，提出非理性决策的抑制策略，通过基于Agent的仿真模型进行实验模拟，在结果对比分析后对策略的有效性进行验证。