针对城市的生物剂风险评估方法与评估系统研究

Performing risk assessment for biological agents to establish the biological agents category list is an important basic work for biodefense capacity building. There are huge differences between different cities in terms of geographical location, topography, climate and demographics, however, all existing biological agents category lists were established at the country level which make them difficult to adjusted to the specific circumstances of each city. Furthermore, all existing biological agents category lists were established depends mainly on the qualitative assessment which was affected greater by subjective factors. Based on the above two points，This study presents a biological agents quantitative risk assessment method for cities，which is made of two major components:(1) Quantitative assessment the likelihood of each specific biological agent used in a bioterrorism based on Delphi method. (2)Establish a “virtual city” based on large amounts of city data in cyber space which corresponds to the real city, then use the method of Bioterrorism incidents computational experiments to quantitative hazard assessment of a bioterrorist attack using the biological agent. Develop the urban dynamic biological agents risk assessment system based on the evaluation method proposed above, and carry out yearly quantitative biological agents risk assessment for china cities to provide the scientific basis of prioritized and focused biodefense capacity building.

评估生物剂风险，建立生物剂威胁分类清单是生物防御能力建设的重要基础工作。各个城市在地理位置、地形、气候、人口组成等方面存在巨大差异，而现有的生物剂清单都是在国家层面建立的，难以适应于每个城市的具体情况。另外，当前生物剂清单的制定主要依赖于定性评估，受主观因素影响较大。基于以上两点，本研究提出一种针对城市的生物剂风险定量评估方法，由两大部分组成：（1）采用德尔菲法定量评估生物剂被用于生物恐怖袭击的可能性；（2）基于大量城市基础数据在计算机中建立与真实城市对应的“虚拟城市”，采用生物恐怖事件计算实验的方法，对采用某种生物剂发动的恐怖袭击对该城市人群造成的危害进行定量评估。基于该评估方法，建立城市生物剂风险动态评估系统，对我国城市开展年度生物剂风险定量评估，为各城市有重点、有针对性的进行生物防御能力建设提供科学依据。

定量评估生物剂风险对国家及军队生物防御能力建设具有重要意义。我国城市众多，各个城市在地理、地形、气候、人口组成及空间分布等方面存在巨大差异，必须有针对性的进行生物剂风险评估，才能为各城市有重点、有针对性的进行生物防御能力建设提供科学依据。.本项目着眼于发展针对我国城市特性的生物剂风险评估方法与风险评估系统，充分考虑城市不同特征对生物事件发展演化的影响，发展了高分辨率人工人口数据生成方法，用于生物剂气溶胶大气扩散危害评估；建立了适合中国城市特征的WRF中尺度天气系统，为生物剂气溶胶大气扩散模型提供高时空分辨率天气数据；建立了适用于复杂天气及地形条件下的中尺度生物剂气溶胶大气扩散模型YKY-BADM，并以真实事件为对照验证了模型的可用性；以YKY-BADM模型为核心，研发了针对城市的生物剂风险评估系统YKY-BCA，并以中国重要城市为例开展风险评估。.项目研究成果可推动我国生物安全风险评估研究与实践的创新发展，为国家和军队生物安全战略规划制定及生物防御能力建设提供重要决策参考。.