基于地区差异性的粮食补贴合理化机制研究

We cannot conclude that billions U.S. dollars China grain subsidies have improved her food security based on the recent literature although those studies have done lots of surveys and data analysis. The main reason is that those papers pay less attention to the differences in how the subsidies are paid, the pattern of local crops and the local agronomic conditions, and the state government has to tailor the subsidies for each region. Therefore, the effects are still debatable. However, it is necessary and not too late to consider how the regional differences affect the grain subsidy effects, otherwise, it will harm the efficiency of the subsidy. In addition, we also need to consider the constraints from state government finical budget and WTO requirement about the "Amber box measures". Under the above two constraints, to improve the production of grain, we construct a China agricultural regional production model based on regional agronomical and economic conditions. In order to suggest a set of optimal subsidies according to local conditions, we run a set of policy simulations in input subsidies, subsidy levels and state government finical budget. On the other hand, we also report the most cost saving subsidy to reach a specific food self-sufficiency level. From the view of methodology, the partial equilibrium model constructed by this project is different from other models since we use county level data and such improvement captures various local variations across all the regions in China.Under the framework of Positive Mathematical Programming, we use supply elasticitites to calibrate the production model. The advantage of using this method is not only requiring less data but also guarantees that the policy simulations will not deviate from the realistic change far away. Therefore, comparing with other China general equilibrium models or partial equilibrium models, our method is more accurate and more flexible for other policy evaluations.

迄今为止，现有文献对我国粮食补贴政策是否提高了粮食产量的评估研究得出了两种截然相反的结论,主要原因是各地区实施补贴的方式、农作物种植结构和自然条件的巨大差异性。因此，抛开地区差异性谈补贴政策的效果是有待商榷的，并且也会导致粮食补贴中资源浪费和效率低下的可能性。基于各地区的不同特点、国家财政约束和WTO规则下对与生产挂钩补贴的限制，本课题通过构建我国农业区域生产模型，针对地区的差异性，对粮食补贴政策在各地区的实施方式、补贴强度、国家财政补贴总量等进行优化分析，最终在有限的补贴总量下，建议各地区采取效率最高的补贴方式，最大化提高粮食产出以提升粮食安全程度。此外，本研究所构建的农业区域生产模型与其它类似模型的显著不同点在于可以最大程度地描述各地区的经济条件和自然条件，并且用供给弹性校准模型可以保证对政策的模拟不会过分偏离真实的市场反应，具有较高的可靠性，同时也可以广泛应用于其它农业政策评估。

自2004年粮食补贴政策实施以来，国家给予农民的种粮支持力度逐年快速增加。2004年给予农民的粮食补贴总额为145亿元，2012年激增到1668亿元。即使大量的公共资源用于粮食补贴，该政策对粮食产出的影响仍然无从知晓。本课题通过构建我国农业区域生产模型，针对地区的差异性，对粮食补贴政策在各地区的实施方式、补贴强度、国家财政补贴总量等进行优化分析，最终在有限的补贴总量下，建议各地区采取效率最高的补贴方式，最大化提高粮食产出以提升粮食安全程度。. 本研究自2014年1月开始。到目前为止，按照研究进度安排开展了文献回顾、理论分析、实证资料收集和分析工作，并且已接近研究结题阶段。本课题的研究分为三个部分展开：（1）从流动性约束视角对粮食补贴的两个基本目标，增加粮食生产和促进农民收入提高，进行了深入地分析，弥合了当前对我国粮食补贴政策效果评价结论不一致的分歧。这项研究认为总体上我国粮食补贴政策促进了粮食生产并且有助于农民收入的提高；（2）本研究同时建立了我国分地区的农业生产部门模型。该模型是“自下而上”建立的分地区，涵盖16类农产品生产的局部均衡模型，能够有效模拟农业政策变化对粮食生产以及农产品市场的影响；（3）基于以上农业生产部门模型，模拟了三种不同类型的粮食补贴方案的效果。结果显示，以产量为补贴发放的标准对粮食生产的促进作用最为显著。同时，传统的粮食主产区是粮食增产的主要来源。