能源拥挤效应的影响机制与应对策略研究

The energy inefficiency caused by the energy congestion is an international frontier research in the field of environmental and management. At present, China's highly energy-consuming industries are facing severe energy congestion. In order to reveal coping strategies of energy factor congestion, this project studies the performance characteristics and influence mechanism of the energy congestion effects from the perspective of price-techno-institutional complex(PTIC). Firstly, the C-SG model is built to identify and measure the energy congestion, and the data spectrum analysis is used to study the coupling characteristics of PTIC lock-in modes to energy congestion effects. On the basis of this, the four lock-in modes are considered into the enterprise's objective functions. Numerical simulation of key control parameters and case analysis are used to study the behavior choice of government and enterprises in order to find the incentive mechanism to solve the energy congestion. In addition, in view of the PTIC heterogeneity, the implementation path of coping with the energy congestion from the two aspects of regional and enterprise are analyzed. Finally, according to the empirical analysis, the coping strategies to energy congestion effects are put forward. The research results will provide theoretical basis and decision support for optimizing the allocation of energy resources, breaking the high-carbon technology lock-in and realizing the new energy revolution.

由能源要素拥挤引发能源效率低下是环境政策和管理领域的国际前沿课题，目前我国高耗能行业面临着严峻的能源拥挤。为研究能源拥挤的应对策略，本项目从价格-技术-制度复合体（PTIC）视角，重点揭示能源拥挤效应的内在机理和影响机制。首先运用C-SG模型对能源拥挤进行识别和测算，并运用数据时谱分析方法揭示PTIC的市场锁定、社会锁定、政府锁定和综合锁定四种模式对能源拥挤效应的耦合特征。在此基础上，将四种锁定模式嵌入企业决策的目标函数中，通过关键调控参数的数值模拟和案例剖析来研究政府与企业的行为选择，从中寻求破解能源拥挤效应的激励机制。另外从PTIC锁定的异质性出发，从区域和企业两个层面研究能源拥挤效应的破解路径。最后根据实证分析，提出破解能源拥挤效应的应对策略。研究成果将为优化能源资源配置、打破高碳技术锁定、实现新能源革命提供理论依据和决策支持。

能源要素拥挤是能源利用无效率的表现形式，不仅造成碳排放过高，还影响经济竞争力。为了对能源拥挤效应进行识别并探究相关政策对能源拥挤的影响机制，本项目根据产出异质性构建了非期望能源拥挤模型和期望能源拥挤模型、运营导向、环境导向及双赢导向下要素拥挤评估模型，并对拥挤效应的影响机理进行了计量建模；同时项目组研究了能源相关碳排放约束对经济系统生产能力的影响，分别建立了四种发展模式对区域产能利用率的影响机制模型、煤炭城市潜在产出评估和影响模型。最后针对中国将致力于通过市场机制减少能源相关碳排放的客观事实，模拟了不同的碳配额分配机制对区域潜在收益的影响。最后根据研究结果提出破解能源拥挤、提升能源利用效率、实现经济发展与环境保护双赢的政策建议。在实证方面，本项目样本范围涉及到火电行业、煤炭城市、省级区域及一带一路沿线国家等。研究成果对于优化能源资源配置、促进低碳转型、提升低碳经济竞争力提供理论依据和决策支持。