公平和可达双重维度下的大城市公共交通实质性优先分析方法与优化

Many large cities in China are being confronted with more and more serious traffic congestion, while the strategy, called Public Transport Priority implemented for decades, is really hard to avoid and relieve transport issue. One of the main reasons is lack of fundamental theory and decision-making basis. Based on insight towards that shortage, the applicants will discuss theory, methods and models of essential priority of urban public transport by breaking through principle priority before and from the perspective of two dimensions, Equity and Accessibility. First of all, Public Transport Priority Strategy in spot, line and block scale will be respectively analyzed from the angles of right to travel and opportunity compensation based on ideas of access to bus station and spatial equilibrium. Secondly, time accessibility variance between travel modes and job accessibility variance between social groups will get further studies from the angles of travel efficiency and performance compensation. Furthermore, it will discuss Public Transport Priority Strategy from the angles of travel cost and investment compensation based on researches on dominant and recessive subsidies, cost accessibility and public transport investment equity. This research is mainly focused on primarily, analysis and assessment of equity between travel modes, social groups and space by using accessibility variance respectively between time, job and cost, and then in reverse, improvement of accessibility and essential priority of public transport by promoting equity. Research achievements, through multi-discipline combination and empirical analysis, will provide all-new and feasible theory, methods and planning decision support for Urban Public Transport Priority Development.

我国多个城市正面临越来越严峻的交通拥堵，但多年来”公交优先”政策并未能阻止交通问题的恶化，重要原因之一在于缺少科学的理论基础和决策依据。申请人了洞察这一不足，将突破原则性优先和”公交优先”的工程化语境，拟从公平和可达的双重维度探讨城市公共交通实质性优先的分析与优化方法。首先，从权利与机会补偿视角，基于站点可及和空间均衡等，探索“点、线、面”不同尺度的分析方法和公交优先策略；其次，从效率与绩效补偿视角，深化研究交通方式间时间可达性差异和社会群体间就业可达性差异，进而分析公交优先策略；再次，基于显隐性补贴、费用可达性、公交投资公平性等研究，进一步探讨费用与投资补偿视角的公交优先策略。本课题强调用(时间/就业/费用)可达性差异分析(交通方式间/社会群体间/空间)公平性，再以提升公平性促进公交优先和更加可达。通过多学科融合和实证分析，研究成果将为城市公共交通实质性优先发展提供理论与方法支持。

在社会主要矛盾转变期，公共交通优先发展应适时的实现向公平正义等观念主导下的更为具体和精细化技术指标的转变。基于此，本研究从根本上改变了与公共交通的常用规划目标，即实现了从单一维度的时间纵向优先向更注重质的、实质性的多维度优先的转变，通过多层次可达性分析评价公平性，再以提高公平性促进公交可达性。..主要创新工作和结论包括：梳理并提出全新的表示某一地点（或栅格）到其他地点（或栅格）可达能力的平均可达性测度指标；运用互联网地图时空大数据，尤其是依托批量爬取的路径规划API的出行时耗和出行距离大数据，作为可达性分析的数据基础；提出点到点的简单可达性和综合点到点出行量（依托手机信令大数据）的复合可达性两类可达性测算方法；以江苏省昆山市为例，运用前述方法分析可达性，进而评价空间公平性、不同交通方式间公平性及费用或补贴的公平性，结论为当地优化公共交通规划方案和倡导实质性公共交通优先发展提供方法和技术支持。..本研究创新提出了相较于此前的原则性公交优先更为具体、更为科学的实质性公交优先概念及测度方法，并采用有针对性的干预措施引导公共交通合理配置和优先发展，将有助于增强社会政策体系的包容性和提升现代化交通治理能力。