能源革命下区域电力供需系统时空协同演化机理与承载力分析理论研究

The energy revolution has become the national development strategy for solving the coordinated development of energy and environment, promoting energy-saving and emission-reduction. And Electric power is one of the most crucial part of energy revolution and energy-saving and emission-reduction. It is of theoretical and practical value to analyze the evolution mechanism and bearing capacity of regional power supply and demand system under complex environment, based on the significance of differentiation analysis of regional development and control.. In the first place, the simulation model of time-space coordination evolution mechanism is built for regional power supply and demand in the project, considering energy revolution and energy-saving and emission-reduction. And the theory of system dynamics is introduced to reveal the internal relation and changing law of the system structure.. In the next place, combined with the structure and parameter of the simulation system established, a forecasting analysis model of regional power supply and demand development under complex environment is given, and theories of smart forecasting and scenario analysis are also introduced to uncover the changing tendency of system structure.. In the third place, the bearing capacity of regional power supply and demand system is built under multi-constraint of resource and environment, emission control, safety support, and theories of comprehensive evaluation and multi-objective decision are introduced to explain the stability of system development.. Finally, combined with the simulation-prediction-analysis of bearing capacity, the optimization development path of the system of regional power supply and demand is given under the theory of carbon emissions decomposition- control analysis and energy bureau. . The project will provide theoretical and practical reference not only for scientifically draw up the energy-saving and emission-reduction mission for the regional power supply and demand system, but optimizing its scientificalness and stability.

能源革命已经成为解决能源与环境协调发展、推动节能减排的国家重要发展战略，电力作为其中重要组成部分，基于区域发展与控制差别化分析的重要性，深入开展复杂环境下区域电力供需系统演化机理与承载力分析具有一定的理论与应用价值。本项目首先构建考虑能源革命与节能减排的区域电力供需系统时空协同演化机理仿真分析模型，引入系统动力学等理论揭示系统结构内在关系及演化规律。其次结合构建的仿真分析系统结构与参数，提出复杂环境下区域电力供需系统发展预测分析模型，引入智能预测及拟境分析等理论揭示系统结构发展趋势。然后考虑资源环境、排放与安全等要素构建多重约束下区域电力供需系统承载力分析模型，引入综合评价及多目标决策等理论揭示系统发展的稳定性。最后结合仿真-预测-承载力分析，引入碳排放分解预测、能源矩等理论提出系统优化发展路径。为科学制定区域电力供需系统节能减排目标、优化系统发展的科学性及稳定性提供理论依据。

能源革命已经成为解决能源与环境协调发展、推动节能减排的国家重要发展战略，电力作为其中重要组成部分，基于区域发展与控制差别化分析的重要性，深入开展复杂环境下区域电力供需系统演化机理与承载力分析具有重要的理论与应用价值。课题主要研究成果及科学意义总结如下：.区域电力供需系统时空协同演化机理仿真分析方面，创新性提出了区域电力供需系统的概念，构建了考虑时空协调的区域电力供需系统架构体系，挖掘了内部结构的核心要素，引入PEST模型分析了外部环境因素变量；基于系统动力学构建了演化机理仿真分析模型，反映了系统要素相互作用的变化过程。为揭示区域电力供需系统结构发展变化趋势，科学分析其变化方向及内在结构控制潜力提供了理论依据。.区域电力供需系统结构发展预测分析方面，考虑环境约束，构建了基于BP神经网络的区域碳排放分析模型；基于Spark平台和BIRCH聚类分析算法进行了用户用能行为分析，结合深度学习神经网络构建用户用能需求分析模型，得到了居民用能行为规律以及用电负荷预测结果；构建了基于小波的负荷预测系统的最小二乘支持向量机和抹香鲸算法，分析供需总量及负荷变化预测；构建了区域电力能源结构马尔科夫预测模型以及基于VAR向量自回归模型的电源结构发展预测模型，开展中国电源结构预测分析。为科学预测区域电力供需系统发展变化趋势提供方法借鉴。.在区域电力供需系统发展承载力分析方面，创新性提出区域电力供需系统发展承载力理念，构建了多重约束集及承载力综合评价指标体系；基于优选评价模型开展了中国电力供需系统承载状况评估。为揭示区域电力供需系统发展的承载力水平提供科学理论指导，同时为保障其安全提供决策依据。.在区域电力供需系统发展优化分析方面，从多元化、清洁化、智能化、高效化等方面，提出了系统化、层次化优化发展路径，为制定科学发展措施提供了实践参考依据。构建了集成区域电力供需系统管理综合分析系统，为优化区域电力供需系统提供智能化工具参考。