河西走廊经济带绿洲型城镇簇群空间成长过程、机理及管治研究

The dynamic relationship and mechanism between the environmental structure and the evolution of growth space of towns-cluster in oasis regions is one of the critical scientific problems which are greatly related to the sustainable development of arid regions. Aiming at solving this problem, this project is to focus its research on the spatial processes, mechanism and governance of towns and towns-cluster of oasis type along the Hexi Corridor Economic Belt. By applying these theories of system, axiology, game, cybernetics and unity of time and space, based upon the assessment of the value of location of towns, this project will give a qualitative analysis on the contribution to the spatial growth of towns-cluster and its spatial expression made by human and social factors, taking institution, behavior for examples, and the driving forces that influence towns' spatial growth and functional routes are also to be probed. Considering the corridor belt as a whole, presenting the concepts of competitive spatial growth of towns, game of space, effects of institution, this project will also construct spatial analysis models on the interactions among the identification of the value of location, development of the urban construction land, change of environmental structure of oasis and policy of spatial governance in order to reveal the general rule and particularity of the spatial growth in the areas of towns of oasis type along the corridor economic belt.The policy target and measures of spatial governance will be proposed finally.

绿洲区域环境结构与城镇簇群成长空间演化之间的动态关系和机理是干旱区可持续发展的关键科学问题之一。本项目围绕这一问题开展河西走廊经济带緑洲型城镇及其簇群空间过程、机理及管治研究。引入系统论、价值论、博弈论、控制论、时空统一论等，在城镇区位价值评估的基础上，定量研究制度、行为等人文社会因素对城镇簇群空间发展的贡献量和空间化表达方式，以及影响城镇空间成长的动力及作用路径。将走廊经济带作为一个整体，提出城镇空间竞争性成长、空间博弈、制度效应等概念，构建区位价值识别-城镇建设用地开发-绿洲环境结构变动-空间管治政策相互作用的空间分析模型，揭示走廊经济带緑洲型城镇空间成长的一般规律和特殊性。提出空间管治的政策目标和措施。

本项目以多期遥感数据和社会经济数据为基础，采用野外调查和室内分析、历史分析和空间分析相结合的研究方法，利用GIS、RS、数理统计等分析手段，以河西走廊、石羊河流域、特定城镇簇群或单个城镇为研究对象，分析了近30年来绿洲型城镇空间成长的资源环境基础及其相互作用格局，深入研究了绿洲型城镇空间演化的过程、特征和机制，并对典型城镇进行多情景模拟和预测，提出了未来城镇空间发展的管治策略。结果表明：①河西走廊生态经济关系整体上经历了“初步恶化-进一步恶化-低度协调”的演变过程，研究区东部的石羊河流域和中部的黑河流域经历了“冲突-进一步冲突-小幅度缓和”的过程，西部的疏勒河流域变化幅度较小，石羊河流域和黑河流域高强度的开发模式及流域综合治理对区域生态经济协调性影响较大；②河西走廊东部石羊河流域用水综合效率呈波动增长趋势，流域城镇人口规模与城镇用水效率呈正相关关系，水贫困程度以不规则的“h”型减弱，可划分为波动下降（2001-2005年）和快速下降（2006-2010年）两个阶段；③河西走廊城镇空间相互作用程度总体加强，城镇潜力分布区域不均衡，空间分异和空间辐射的特征及演变规律显著，空间相互作用主要受城镇综合实力、城镇行政地位和城镇地理位置的影响；④河西走廊城镇空间扩展速度呈“缓慢下降-快速上升”的特征，扩展强度上升趋势明显，扩展阶段依次为“内部填充-外部拓展-内部填充”，驱动模式包括综合驱动型、资源驱动型、传统驱动型和政策驱动型4种；⑤预测结果显示，河西走廊城镇空间扩展将主要在中心城镇延续快速扩展的态势，受脆弱生态环境的制约，未来城镇用地应向集约化转变，城镇扩展应向生态保护模式转变。研究结果为绿洲型城镇空间结构组织优化和管治提供了科学依据，可为干旱区城镇可持续发展、主体功能区划实施、生态文明和丝绸之路经济带建设提供决策参考。